If, like me, you live in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania, this message is directed to you.

I do not think that Hillary Clinton is racist. I also do not think that her campaign staff is full of racist people. However, I believe that she and they believe that we, the residents of Pennsylvania, are racist. In fact, I believe they're counting on it.

OK, the details of how I'm going to do this are in my last diary, which was based on pre-election polls. Now, I'm taking the exit polls in Ohio, and making a projection for the state-wide delegates for Clinton and Obama. Note: all the caveats for the first iteration of exit polling apply, as do critiques of my method, which combines racial/ethnic cross-tabs from the exit polls with demographic data from the last census. These are NOT based on regional/congressional district cross tabs or actual results of any kind. But if you're like me and need something to hold you over while waiting for actual results, they're somewhat useful.

Anyways, here are the projected numbers:

I'm going to lead with the conclusion: I'm predicting a narrow, 47-45 delegate victory for Clinton that is within the margin of error.

I previously made (rough) predictions for the delagates in Ohio, based off of the regional cross-tabs in sUSA's older Ohio primary poll. In the comments, I received some constructive criticism that suggested I got district 11 (amongst other things) wrong, due to my use of regional cross-tabs that were too coarse to catch things like the majority African-American population in that district. So, here's my second attempt at this, using yesterday's sUSA Presidential primary poll for Ohio. Thus, this projection has new data and an improved method (thus the title of the diary).

So I've seen predictions by MattTX for the pledged delegate distribution over at Burnt Orange Report Election Inspection (that's MattTX's home blog - it was cross-posted at Burn Orange Report.) I don't live in Ohio, but I live next door in PA and am curious what role my state will play in this primary. Will it be the decider? Will it be Obama's victory lap? Will it be the state that determines the nomination won't be decided until the convention? All these questions hinge on what happens in Ohio as much as on what happens in Pennsylvania. Here's why...

Q: Why was Obama's victory speech tonight so long?

A: Because it takes time to go over just some of his brilliant solutions for America.

Barack Obama took the stage tonight with all the momentum in the Democratic Presidential Primary. He did so without a teleprompter, but with a brain full of solutions. Recently, he had come under attack, from both Republicans and his chief rival, Hillary Clinton, that he represented an "empty and eloquent call for change," and that this country needed "actions, not words." These were references to his ability to deliver a good speech, and the implication is that he's an "empty suit" that has no policies but just a good speechwriter.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, there are three sets of delegates one should consider: pledged delegates, superdelegates, and disputed delegates (which includes those from Florida and Michigan). Here, I take a look at the pledged and unassigned delegates and show how they highlight the significance of the large wins being predicted for Barack Obama today.

The bottom line is this: after tonight, Clinton will be at a point in the campaign where she will have to make up significant ground, or else make incredibly destructive moves to obtain the nomination. Contrast this to Obama, who should be at a point in his campaign where all he has to do is split the remaining delegates to ensure a unified nomination without controversy.

A source with inside knowledge of the ways in which Florida delegates will be assigned indicates that Mike Gravel will tie for the lead in delegates coming out of the state of Florida. The following statement was released by the Gravel campaign as Hillary Clinton was claiming victory in Florida:

Despite spending almost zero money, zero time campaigning, and getting absolutely zero attention from the national media, Mike Gravel will send as many delegates to the Democratic National Convention as any other candidate. We've heard from other campaigns that it is the delegate count that really matters, and we see this as a reinforcement of our lack of message. We will continue to expand our "silent minority" campaign to the states voting on February 5th and beyond, and promise to continue letting the voters speak up for our campaign, which doesn't really speak for itself.

More reactions after the break...

CNN's "Inside Politics" is currently reporting that the White House has approached Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson (D) about Nelson being appointed Agriculture Secretary. They mentioned in the article that Karl Rove is in favor of this because it would allow Republican Governer Mike Johanns to appoint a Republican to Nelson's senate seat in preperation for the 2006 mid-term elections. So, what do we think? If this report is accurate, should Nelson accept the seat and give us more say in the administration or should he bunker down for a tough re-election campaign in 2006?